Headed into the 2024 elections, Republicans controlled the 435-seat House of Representatives by the slimmest of margins after performing weaker than predicted in the 2022 midterms and losing seats to a series of early retirements and resignations.
Democrats are favored to win four seats currently held by Republicans; Republicans are favored to win one seat in Michigan currently held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is running for the Senate.
In addition, there are 22 races that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates as true “toss-ups;” 12 of those seats are held by Republicans and 10 are held by Democrats.
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Control of the House in the next Congress will likely hinge on the outcomes of the districts already identified as potential flips, plus clusters of toss-up races in Arizona, Southern California and Pennsylvania.
The 19th is tracking other House races, including the one for Delaware’s at-large district, where Sarah McBride is on the road to becoming the first out trans member of Congress; and races in Wisconsin and Minnesota, where Drs. Kristin Lyerly and Kelly Morrison are aiming to be the first women OB-GYNs — and only doctors in reproductive medicine who support abortion rights — in Congress.
Because of the slow speed at which California tallies votes, it could be days or weeks before we know which party will control the lower chamber since there are several competitive House races in the state.
