Update: On Tuesday, Decision Desk HQ projected Democrat Tom Suozzi as the winner.

Mazi Melesa Pilip, a Jewish, Ethiopian-born immigrant and mother of seven, is campaigning to keep New York’s swingy 3rd Congressional District red in a special election on Tuesday. If elected, she would be the second Black Republican congresswoman.

The relative newcomer is facing Democrat Tom Suozzi — who previously represented the district before stepping away for a second failed gubernatorial bid — in the contest to fill the seat most recently held by expelled former Rep. George Santos. 

The special election will help determine how narrow of an advantage Republicans have in the House. The race is being fought over issues that have defined politics in recent years, including abortion, a point of contention in the candidates’ first and only debate on February 8. Pilip has said that she would not vote for legislation to ban the procedure nationwide. 

“I think when it comes to abortion, every woman should have that choice to make that decision. I chose to be a mother of seven children. That was my choice. I’m not going to force my own beliefs on any woman. Therefore, I’m not going to support a national abortion ban. … I’m not going to risk women’s rights,” Pilip said at the town-hall style debate. 

Suozzi countered by bringing up Pilip’s endorsements from anti-abortion conservatives. And he criticized her for supporting the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that ended a federal right to abortion.

“You sound like you’re saying you’re pro-choice. But then you say you’re pro-life. When it comes to the laws, you say you’re not going to tell people what to do. You support the Supreme Court decision. … You said that what they did with Dobbs was correct, and you’ve said you will not vote to make Roe vs. Wade the law of the land,” Suozzi argued.

The two also sparred over the issue of immigration. Suozzi said he had worked across party lines before and criticized Pilip’s stance and her level of experience.

“My opponent is unvetted and unprepared. We’ve been down this road before with Santos; we can’t go down this road again,” Suozzi said.

Pilip said, if elected, she will support securing the border, building a wall, increasing the number of border patrol officers and tightening standards for asylum seekers. In polling released this month by Newsday and Siena College, voters said they believe Pilip will do a better job at handling the migrant influx than Suozzi. 

Pilip’s status as an immigrant makes her “a really good messenger” for Republicans’ stance on immigration, according to Catherine Wineinger, an assistant professor of political science at Western Washington University and the author of “Gendering the GOP: Intraparty Politics and Republican Women’s Representation in Congress.”

“What is happening is that this anti-immigrant rhetoric is actually activating racial resentment among White voters, but also a racial resentment that exists among some voters of color,” Wineinger said. “Having a woman of color being the one to advance these policies and frame these policies, I think the Republican Party views that as another way to activate this racial resentment among voters of color, as well as White voters.”

Pilip flipped a seat in the Nassau County, New York, legislature in 2021. Born in Ethiopia, she immigrated to Israel in 1991 through Operation Solomon, a program that allowed the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to airlift Ethiopian Jews to the country. Pilip would later serve the IDF as a gunsmith in the paratrooper unit and earn degrees from the University of Haifa and Tel Aviv University.

While Suozzi leans into his experience as former mayor of Glen Cove, New York, county executive of Nassau County and a former representative for the 3rd Congressional District, Pilip has tried to use it against him. During the debate, she said: “You are a talker. I am a person who will deliver what I promise” and “Nassau people are really sick and tired of old politics, empty promises.”

In the most recent Newsday and Siena College polling, 44 percent of likely special election voters said they would support Pilip, compared with 48 percent who said they would support Suozzi. Other polling has also shown a tight race with Suozzi leading by a few points.

Kelly Dittmar, director of research for the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), said Pilip’s identity and shorter history in politics could appeal to voters. 

“Instead of saying, ‘We want people with 20 years of experience in elected office,’ there’s been at least somewhat of a shift of saying, ‘Actually, we don’t want people with that extensive of a political résumé. We don’t want a politician. We want somebody who is willing to challenge the status quo,’” Dittmar said. “Because Congress, and in particular, Republicans in Congress, are so predominantly White and male, when you are not, by nature of your identity, there is at least the perception that you bring something new.”

CAWP tracks the number of women officeholders and their race and ethnicity. There is one Black woman in the Senate — who was recently appointed — and 28 Black women in the House of Representatives. All of them belong to the Democratic Party. There are currently no Black women Republicans in the House, and there have not been any since Mia Love served from Utah’s 4th Congressional District for two terms starting in 2015.

The special election candidates were chosen by parties instead of via a primary. Joe Cairo, the chairman of Nassau County’s GOP, last month discussed Pilip’s electability on Cats and Cosby, a radio show for local station WABC.

“She’s been a legislator for two years, elected in 2021, in a seat that, since its inception, since the legislature was created in 1995, we never won that seat. She took that seat away from a four-term incumbent. …She’s a great candidate, a great person. She’s going to be a great congresswoman,” Cairo said on the show.

Neither campaign responded to requests to comment.

Nominating a Black Jewish woman was strategic on the Nassau County GOP’s part, said Suzanne Chod, an assistant professor of political science and the coordinator of gender and sexuality studies at North Central College. It demonstrates both their alliance with Israel and efforts to diversify the party.

“I think the Republican Party … saw an opening to elevate an Israeli woman into Congress to say, ‘We’re still super pro Israel,’” she said.

Chod said a win by Pilip could also help attract more women of color candidates to the party. Both parties and local communities can do the work to diversify who represents them, organizing to elevate women of color in politics.

“My hope would be that if Mazi has some success, we may see these ecosystems pop up across parties and other places,” Chod said.